ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), China’s largest DRAM maker, is expected to almost match Micron‘s production capacity by the end of 2026. If this happens, it would strengthen the company’s position and help make China the world’s second-largest memory production base.
Current estimates show that CXMT will reach a production capacity of 350,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM) by the end of 2026. Micron is expected to reach 375,000 WSPM, leaving a difference of only 25,000 WSPM.
To speed up China’s goal of becoming more self-sufficient and reduce the country’s memory shortage, the Chinese government is encouraging CXMT to share its technology with other local companies, including JHICC, Swaysure, and XMC, a subsidiary of YMTC.
CXMT Nears Micron’s DRAM Production Capacity
If these expansion plans move forward, China’s combined DRAM production capacity, not including factories owned by foreign companies such as Samsung and SK hynix inside the country, will reach 600,000 WSPM. That would be higher than the combined DRAM production of the United States, Japan, and Taiwan.
Looking further ahead, analyst Citrini expects China’s total DRAM production capacity to grow to 1.41 million WSPM by 2030, with CXMT contributing 950,000 WSPM.
However, China still faces major challenges, especially in lithography technology. Western trade restrictions, including the proposed MATCH Act, are designed to limit the supply of advanced DUV immersion scanners from companies such as ASML.
Some analysts believe Chinese companies such as SMEE and SiCarrier could have local alternatives ready for production between late 2026 and 2028, but bringing those tools into large-scale production is expected to take several more years.
Despite these challenges, China’s growing DRAM industry could play an important role in the global market. With a projected 25% memory supply shortage by 2030, mainly because of growing demand from artificial intelligence, CXMT could become an important supplier and help reduce the expected shortage.
