The year 2026 is shaping up to be a challenging one for the PC market. According to the latest report from the International Data Corporation (IDC), global PC shipments could fall by up to 9% compared to 2025 — a sharp drop from the -2.5% forecast just a month earlier. Even in the most moderate scenario, the contraction is expected to hover around 5%.
The main reason behind this slowdown is the ongoing global shortage of DRAM and NAND memory, which has worsened since mid-October 2025. IDC admitted that it initially underestimated the severity of the situation and had to revise its forecasts due to unexpected market deterioration.
Smartphones Also at Risk
It’s not only the PC market that will suffer from the memory crisis. The rising demand for memory from major artificial intelligence companies has pushed manufacturers to prioritize high-margin enterprise solutions, reducing the supply available for consumer devices.
This shortage has also impacted the smartphone market, particularly mid-range models. With already thin profit margins, manufacturers are facing a choice between raising prices or reducing hardware specifications. IDC expects smartphone sales to decline by up to 5% in 2026, with longer replacement cycles and higher average selling prices.
Meanwhile, the PC industry faces additional challenges: the end of Windows 10 support and the ongoing push toward “AI PCs,” both of which may strain consumer budgets further.
The effects of the memory shortage will not be evenly distributed. Large manufacturers with economies of scale and long-term supplier agreements are likely to weather the storm better, while smaller brands, system builders, and gaming-focused companies may struggle the most — especially since gaming PCs typically rely on high memory configurations and competitive pricing.
In essence, 2026 will act as a year of natural selection for the PC industry. Companies that can manage their supply chains effectively and leverage vertical integration will hold a significant advantage over their more vulnerable competitors.
What do you think about this situation? Do you believe the PC industry can recover from this downturn? Let us know in the comments.
