The CEO of Phison has painted a very negative picture for the future of the tech industry, and for consumers. He believes that the DRAM and NAND Flash crisis could last until 2030, and that there will not be a full recovery because AI will keep demand for these components permanently high. This will reshape the general consumer market.
In his view, this situation will destroy several businesses that depend on DRAM, because if you cannot access the components you need, you cannot sell products. Companies with lower profit margins that rely heavily on steady hardware sales will not be able to survive. He does not mention specific names, but smaller OEMs would be the most affected.
Impact on the Consumer Market
He has also said that factories are asking for prepayments of up to three years, something that has never happened before. This is making the situation more and more difficult for smaller players, who cannot afford to make such large payments upfront.
This situation could also affect supply, products, and prices in the consumer market. Large brands may increasingly prioritize the professional sector and the AI market, where they achieve higher profit margins, leaving the general consumer market in a secondary position.
If this becomes a trend, the situation for consumers will become more complicated, and prices could rise even further. Some sources say that China will play an important role and may help normalize the situation sooner than expected. There are also voices claiming that we are in a forced bubble, and that AI will eventually burst.
