According to a report from research firm Jefferies Equity Research, the ongoing shortage of components and the growing demand driven by artificial intelligence will lead to another increase in RAM and NAND memory prices during the third quarter. The report also suggests there is little chance of relief before 2028.
Analysts expect memory prices to increase by between 40% and 50% in the third quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter. Instead of slowing down, prices are expected to rise again in the fourth quarter by another 30% to 40%. The trend is expected to continue throughout 2027, with year-over-year growth of between 40% and 45%.
AI Demand to Push RAM Prices Higher Until 2028
The main reason behind this situation is limited supply combined with very strong demand from business customers. The three biggest memory makers, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, are giving priority to long-term contracts with cloud service providers. Around 50% of global production capacity is already tied to these agreements, and that figure could increase to 70%. This leaves very little inventory available for the consumer market, creating the biggest challenge.
Meanwhile, hopes that Chinese manufacturers such as CXMT would flood the market with cheap memory have not become reality. Their prices are in line with the rest of the industry, and most of their production is used within China. Large companies such as Apple have even tried to gain access to sanctioned Chinese suppliers because of rising manufacturing costs.
Consumers are expected to feel the effects directly. Prices for desktop PCs, laptops, smartphones, and gaming consoles are likely to increase around the world throughout 2026 and 2027. According to Jefferies, a small recovery and lower average prices are only expected in 2028, when new production capacity of around 15% to 20% becomes available.
